Australia needs more homes. Unfortunately, fewer people are signing up to have them built.
The Housing Industry Association reports that new home sales fell 17.5 per cent in the September quarter, reaching their lowest quarterly level in eighteen months.
Our housing strategy appears to be approaching a roundabout with everyone insisting somebody else should go first.
First, what does this figure actually measure?
It’s a survey of major home builders across the five largest states, providing an indication of future detached-house construction.
It does not mean Australian house prices fell 17.5 per cent. Please don’t take that number to an auction and demand a discount.
Sales actually increased slightly in September itself. But that wasn’t enough to reverse the quarterly slump.
Why does it matter?
Because today’s building contracts help determine tomorrow’s construction activity. Fewer contracts can mean a weaker pipeline of new homes.
And Australia’s housing shortage is unlikely to be solved by building fewer of them.
The HIA points to higher interest rates, taxes and economic uncertainty. It also reports more buyers cancelling contracts.
For someone planning a home, the advertised building price is only the beginning.
There’s land, finance, site costs—and the discovery that “standard inclusions” apparently means a front door and optimism.
My view? Governments need to examine the whole journey from an approved block to a completed home.
Are essential services connected? Are approvals moving? Can builders find workers? And can buyers obtain finance without selling a kidney—which, inconveniently, isn’t an approved deposit scheme?
We also need to keep this survey in perspective. It covers part of the housing market, rather than every apartment, townhouse or existing property sale.
But it’s a warning worth taking seriously.
Announcing housing targets is easy. Turning them into occupied homes requires coordinated work.
Because Australians can’t live in a target.
Even if the minister describes it as spacious, ambitious and close to public transport.
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